MyDD :: Dear Jonathan Alter, My MATH problem

Dear Jonathan Alter, My MATH problem

by ann0nymous, Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 09:34:40 AM EST

Please treat this as an open letter to Jonathan Alter, John Kerry, Dick Durbin and all other math-geniuses out there.

Dear Jonathan Alter,

While I have always appreciated math puzzles ever since I was a kid, I have never
been good at it. I do not know what is the reason. Maybe sometimes I wonder why
2+2 is not 5, other times I wondered whether the world is playing tricks with giving
me these strange questions which seem to have no meaning, or maybe it was just
my migraine acting up. I like your columns, but really this a new MATH puzzle a day
is making my head hurt.

I realize that you are a genius at Math; and probably have a PhD in Math tucked away. For all I know, this Newsweek job is just your Alter-ego writing and you turn
into a Math Professor in your day job, But really, you are killing me with these Math
puzzles everyday. I would really appreciate it if Professor Jonathan Einstein and
journalist Jonathan Alter keep their worlds separate, and allow this poor not-so
smart voter to vote.

And I am appealing to your better angels (should be somewhere tucked with your
Math PhD).

Thanks

Tags: Jon Alter, John Kerry, Math problems (all tags)

Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment

Well, Clinton needs to win 62-63% of the (none / 0)

remaining delegates to get a lead in pledged delegates. That's elementary math. You don't need to math PhD to figure that out.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 09:41:15 AM EST

From an electoral standpoint (2.00 / 1)

based upon apportionment, that translates into wins ranging from ~68% to 73% of the popular vote depending upon district level targeting.

And it only gets worse after Wyoming and Mississippi.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:09:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, Clinton needs to win 62-63% of the (2.00 / 2)

The goals is 2025 delegates. Obama can not get there without Superdelgates the same as Hillary. If Obama can not win Pennsyvania, I say Super D's go to Hillary because she will have ended the Primaries with the momentum. No worry, the polls then will have confirmed it and the General Election match-ups will show Hillary fairing better.

by meliou2 on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:14:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And in all of this (none / 0)

Obama supporters never ever consider a solution for MI/FL. If they can find a way, she will nail him to the wall with FL. They always do the math without considering that.

Rules are not necessarily sacred, principles are. - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

by anna belle on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:22:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And in all of this (none / 0)

There are 366 total delegates at stake between Florida and Michigan. There were 370 on March 4. So if they do a re-do maybe she'll pick up another 4 delegates!! Haha. The math ain't there for Hillary.

Barack is going to get enough pledged delegates to easily close the gap with supers.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:37:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And in all of this (none / 0)

There are two solutions for FL and MI.

Revote by June 10 or put it before the credentials committee in July.

There are no other solutions. Those are the rules. The states can determine how they will proceed.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's consider both cases: (none / 0)

Case A: If there won't be re-vote in FL/MI (then FL/MI delegates won't be counted):

Then:
Remaining PDs to be won: about 611
Obama's current PD lead: about 150+

Required margin by Clinton (to get a PD lead):
-->150/611 = 0.2454992

Which means that she needs to beat Obama by 24% (in PDs), which means that she needs to thump Obama 62%-38% in the remaining PDs (i.e. in every remaining contest or in the net). This is essentially out of question.

~~~~~~~

Case B: If there will be a re-vote in FL/MI:

Then:
Pledged delegates in FL (185 PDs) and MI (128 PDs) combined: 313
Remaining PDs to be won: about 611+313= 924

Obama's current PD lead: about 150+

Required margin by Clinton (to get a PD lead):
-->150/611 = 0.2454992

Which means that she needs to beat Obama by 24% (in PDs), which means that she needs to thump Obama 62%-38% in the remaining PDs.

Required margin by Clinton (to get a PD lead) with "do over" contests in FL/MI:
150/(611+313) = 0.1623377

Which means that, in this case, she needs to beat Obama by 16% (in PDs), which means that she needs to thump Obama 58%-42% in the remaining PDs for this case.

Beating Obama 58%-42% in every remaining contest (or in the net) will be very hard for Clinton to pull off.

~~~~~~~

In conclusion, while the door is not completely shut on Clinton taking the PD lead, in order to get there, she'd need to win whopping victories over Obama in every remaining state even if FL and MI are re-voted, which is a very high hurdle.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:47:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

fair enough, anna belle? (none / 0)

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:55:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton got 187 delegates, Obama got 183 on 3/4 (none / 0)

That's after she (and the nefarious pro-Clinton 527 group) threw negative attack after negative attack at Obama, the Clintons pandered to Rush Limbaugh and the Republicans and got the racists to vote for her. So much trash throwing netted her a +4 gain on PDs. Pitiful.

Obama was caught in a slightly complex situation (of being sort of a front-runner after WI/HI that hadn't yet put away Clinton but with McCain having emerged as the GOP nominee on the other side) and allowed Clinton to get away most of her kitchen sink approach. He's not going to let that continue going forward. Remember how the Clintons were handed a humiliating defeat in SC after their negative tactics there?

Clinton doesn't have a reasonable chance of winning the pledged delegate count. Super delegates aren't going to go counter to the victor of the pledged delegate count at the end of the day.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:00:47 AM EST

Respond with substance and evidence to argue (none / 0)

against my comment here, instead of throwing around mythical claims of 'incorrectness' (go ahead and post a link to prove this alleged "incorrectness", instead of making claims from thin air).

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:17:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Myy comment is of the factual kind (none / 0)

Have a nice day.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:28:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dear Jonathan Alter, My MATH problem (none / 0)

Don't you know that Senator Clinton didn't major in math? She majored in miracles.

Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."

by brimur on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:39:44 AM EST

Re: Dear Jonathan Alter, My MATH problem (none / 0)

It is so obvious that the reason the Obama people are so desperately spinning the MATH angle is because they are afraid to continue with the campaign. They don't want to let the rest of the states have their say. They need to get over it.. the rest of the states are voting. Period.

by JustJennifer on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:53:55 AM EST

what about this math: C 263 O 193 (none / 0)

Add up all the states he has won in his historic drive to become the nominee, including all of those small and deeply "red" Republican states where the Obama supporters boast of their candidate's transcendental appeal, and so far Obama has won in places representing 193 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Add up Clinton's victories thus far and she has triumphed in states representing 263 electoral votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/03/tough_math_on_the_democratic_s .html

by yellowdem1129 on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 12:04:35 PM EST

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